Nber recession dating committee. Chapter 7. Business Cycles.



Nber recession dating committee

Nber recession dating committee

Even so, average growth in this expansion—a 2. In this post, I return to previous analysis on a specific portion of consumer spending—household discretionary services expenditures—that has displayed unusual weakness in the current expansion see this post for the definition of discretionary versus nondiscretionary services expenditures, and these posts from and for previous updates.

Even though these expenditures have picked up over the past couple of years, such that they have finally exceeded their previous peak, their recovery remains well behind that of other major categories of consumer spending.

Depth of Decline and Extent of Recovery The chart below shows the extent of the decline in real per capita discretionary services expenditures from their previous peak—a zero value in the chart indicates that expenditures are equal to or above their previous peak. In the first four years of the expansion, progress in recovering from the decline was halting. But since the middle of , recovery has been steadier, with the result that discretionary services expenditures in the second quarter of this year exceeded their previous peak.

Unfortunately, it has taken ten years the previous peak of these expenditures occurred in the second quarter of to reach this point. The difference can be seen in the following chart, which focuses on the post period and presents both the latest vintage of the data and the vintage just prior to the annual revision. Pace of Recovery Having recently passed the eight-year anniversary of the trough of the Great Recession June , based on the NBER dating , the current expansion has become the third-longest in U.

So in thinking about the pace of recovery for discretionary services spending, I compare the pace seen in the current expansion with that seen in the three other recent expansions—the s and s expansions, which lasted longer than the current expansion, and the s expansion, which lasted almost as long. To do so, I present a chart that shows real per capita discretionary services expenditures indexed to in the quarters marking the end of each of the four respective recessions.

This type of chart allows me to compare the pace of recovery in discretionary services spending across business cycles. As shown below, the pace of recovery in the current cycle remains considerably below that of the other long expansions. Much of the gap between the current and previous long expansions occurred early in the expansions: Four years into the current expansion, discretionary services expenditures were only marginally above the level seen at the trough of the business cycle.

Nevertheless, this gap continued to widen over the subsequent four years. The slow recovery in discretionary services expenditures is consistent with other unusual features of this expansion, such as the slow growth of both real income and labor productivity—all of which are fundamental determinants of consumption.

The analysis of the behavior of productivity by John Fernald of the San Francisco Fed and the regime-switching model of productivity growth by Kahn-Rich both indicate that the longer-term trend of productivity growth has been relatively low since the mids.

Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author. How to cite this blog post: Posted by Blog Author at

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What Is An Economic Trough?



Nber recession dating committee

Even so, average growth in this expansion—a 2. In this post, I return to previous analysis on a specific portion of consumer spending—household discretionary services expenditures—that has displayed unusual weakness in the current expansion see this post for the definition of discretionary versus nondiscretionary services expenditures, and these posts from and for previous updates.

Even though these expenditures have picked up over the past couple of years, such that they have finally exceeded their previous peak, their recovery remains well behind that of other major categories of consumer spending.

Depth of Decline and Extent of Recovery The chart below shows the extent of the decline in real per capita discretionary services expenditures from their previous peak—a zero value in the chart indicates that expenditures are equal to or above their previous peak. In the first four years of the expansion, progress in recovering from the decline was halting.

But since the middle of , recovery has been steadier, with the result that discretionary services expenditures in the second quarter of this year exceeded their previous peak.

Unfortunately, it has taken ten years the previous peak of these expenditures occurred in the second quarter of to reach this point. The difference can be seen in the following chart, which focuses on the post period and presents both the latest vintage of the data and the vintage just prior to the annual revision. Pace of Recovery Having recently passed the eight-year anniversary of the trough of the Great Recession June , based on the NBER dating , the current expansion has become the third-longest in U.

So in thinking about the pace of recovery for discretionary services spending, I compare the pace seen in the current expansion with that seen in the three other recent expansions—the s and s expansions, which lasted longer than the current expansion, and the s expansion, which lasted almost as long.

To do so, I present a chart that shows real per capita discretionary services expenditures indexed to in the quarters marking the end of each of the four respective recessions. This type of chart allows me to compare the pace of recovery in discretionary services spending across business cycles.

As shown below, the pace of recovery in the current cycle remains considerably below that of the other long expansions. Much of the gap between the current and previous long expansions occurred early in the expansions: Four years into the current expansion, discretionary services expenditures were only marginally above the level seen at the trough of the business cycle.

Nevertheless, this gap continued to widen over the subsequent four years. The slow recovery in discretionary services expenditures is consistent with other unusual features of this expansion, such as the slow growth of both real income and labor productivity—all of which are fundamental determinants of consumption.

The analysis of the behavior of productivity by John Fernald of the San Francisco Fed and the regime-switching model of productivity growth by Kahn-Rich both indicate that the longer-term trend of productivity growth has been relatively low since the mids. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the author. How to cite this blog post: Posted by Blog Author at

Nber recession dating committee

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  1. Now let's examine the behavior of these indicators across time. Forecasting involves identifying how different measures of economic performance change in relationship to each other.

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